The International Monetary Fund’s newest economic outlook has brought some positive news for Nigeria, revising the country’s GDP growth forecast upwards to 3.4 percent for 2025. This reflects a 0.4 percentage point improvement over the forecast published just three months earlier.
According to IMF’s World Economic Outlook report released in July 2025, Nigeria’s economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 3 percent into 2026, with a new estimate of 3.2 percent growth compared to the previous 2.7 percent.
Globally, economic recovery also appears to be gaining traction, prompting the IMF to lift the worldwide growth forecast for the next two years. The international body now anticipates a 3.0 percent global economic expansion in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow at 4.0 percent in 2025 and accelerate to 4.3 percent in 2026, representing a slight yet meaningful upward revision from previous estimates. The IMF highlighted that economic growth in the region is expected to stay stable before experiencing further improvement next year.
Tunde Abidoye, Equity Research Head at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, commented on Nigeria’s numbers: “The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points. I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services. That said, the range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem.”
This latest forecast suggests that while Nigeria’s economy is heading in a positive direction, significant work remains to ensure that growth translates into broad-based development across the country.