President Bola Tinubu has emerged ahead of Peter Obi by 1,067 responses in the Oxford–Metro Analytics National Trust Poll, according to the final results of the online survey.
The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.
Tinubu secured 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi received 23,402 responses, or 33.86 per cent. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, accounting for 26.67 per cent of total participation.
The result placed Tinubu 1,067 responses ahead of Obi, a margin of approximately 1.54 percentage points.
The regional distribution of the responses suggested a significantly different electoral landscape from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.
Tinubu, who won 12 states in the 2023 presidential election, was reported to have led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in the online poll. Obi and Atiku, meanwhile, recorded the highest number of responses in eight states each.
Some of the most notable shifts were recorded in Northern Nigeria, where the poll indicated increased support for Tinubu.
The President led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe—states won by Atiku in the 2023 election. He also led in Kano, where New Nigeria Peoples Party candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso won the presidential vote in 2023.
At the geopolitical-zone level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central. Obi recorded his strongest performances in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku dominated the North-East.
In the South-West, Tinubu secured 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of the region’s total participation.
He also led in the North-West, where he received 4,129 responses, accounting for 43.10 per cent of responses from the zone.
In the North-Central, Tinubu polled 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of the regional total.
Obi’s strongest showing came in the South-East, where he received 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent of the zone’s participation.
The Labour Party candidate also led in the South-South, recording 2,389 responses, or 41.48 per cent of participants in the region.
Atiku dominated the North-East with 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of the region’s total.
Despite Tinubu’s broader geographical spread, the national contest remained close between the two leading candidates.
The 1,067-response difference between Tinubu and Obi represented a relatively narrow national margin, while several individual state contests were even tighter.
In Kogi, for example, Tinubu received 39 responses, compared with 38 for Atiku and 33 for Obi, from a total of only 110 responses. The one-response margin between Tinubu and Atiku highlights the importance of considering the relatively small participation base in some states when interpreting the results.
In the FCT, Tinubu polled 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving him a lead of 321 responses. Atiku received 3,954 responses.
Rivers also recorded a relatively close contest, with Tinubu receiving 975 responses, Obi 892 and Atiku 568. Tinubu’s margin over Obi in the state was 83 responses.
Beyond the three leading candidates, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.
Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor six, while Prince Kennedy Ahanotu recorded two responses.
A further 638 participants selected “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet,” while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate.”
The distribution of responses showed that winning the national tally did not necessarily translate into dominance across every geopolitical zone or state.
Tinubu’s national lead and victories across three geopolitical zones contrasted with Obi’s dominance in the South-East and Atiku’s strength in the North-East.
Participation was also heavily concentrated geographically. Lagos and the FCT alone accounted for 54.44 per cent of all responses, a factor that is important when assessing the broader significance of the poll.
The final dataset included 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic geopolitical-zone tallies.