In May 2023, as Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office as President of Nigeria, the nation stood at a precarious juncture. Its landscape had become pockmarked by a constellation of crises: insurgency in the North-East, rampant banditry across the North-West, separatist unrest in the South-East, industrial-scale oil theft in the Niger Delta, and communal bloodletting in the central regions. Nigeria was, as one security analyst put it at the time, “fighting for its soul.”
These were the accumulated weight of unaddressed fragilities, exploited by violent non-state actors over the years. At a lecture delivered last week at the 50th anniversary celebration of the Nigerian Defence Academy’s 18 Regular Course, National Security Adviser (NSA) Mallam Nuhu Ribadu made a compelling case: Nigeria, he said, is turning the tide. “We inherited five intractable security challenges,” Ribadu began. “Today, we are dismantling the networks that sustained them—brick by brick, camp by camp, cell by cell.”
More than 13,500 insurgents and armed criminals have been neutralised, while over 124,000 fighters and their families have surrendered in the North-East. Territories once considered impenetrable—Sambisa Forest, the Lake Chad Basin, and the infamous Tumbuktu Triangle—are now under government control.
Banditry, the grim hallmark of Nigeria’s North-West in recent years, has seen a reversal. In states like Zamfara and Kaduna, over 11,000 hostages have been rescued, and more than 50 notorious warlords—names like Ali Kachalla, Halilu Sububu, and Dogo Bwari—have been neutralised. Complementing the kinetic approach is Operation Safe Corridor, an initiative that has achieved the surrender of 35 armed leaders, many of whom once operated with impunity.
In the South-East, where separatist agitation and sit-at-home orders once paralysed economic life, calm is slowly returning. Key agitators have been arrested, law enforcement presence restored, and in communities long abandoned by government services, police stations are being rebuilt. Markets have reopened, and the air of tension has begun to lift.
Crucial gains have been made in the Niger Delta, too. For decades, the region has been synonymous with sabotage, illicit bunkering, and economic hemorrhage. But under the current administration, and with the synergy of the security services, coordinated by Mal. Ribadu, oil production has increased from a historic low of 1 million barrels per day to 1.8 million. Over 1,900 illegal refineries have been dismantled, and major pipelines once under siege are now protected and functional. Remarkably, oil production has resumed in Ogoniland, something not seen in over thirty years.
These tactical victories have been mirrored by an emerging strategic vision. The NSA revealed that Nigeria has disrupted illegal financial flows, particularly those using cryptocurrency platforms to fund terrorism and separatism. A National Digital Forensics Laboratory has been activated, alongside a Critical Infrastructure Protection Plan, marking significant headway in national cyber defence.
The shift, according to Ribadu, is a structural one. “We are rebuilding confidence,” he said, “restoring not only physical security but psychological assurance in the authority and reach of the state.”
Indeed, it is not lost on observers that these gains, while impressive, remain fragile. As climate change accelerates and transnational criminal networks evolve, Nigeria’s security ecosystem must be agile enough to adapt. The government’s efforts to integrate climate-smart agricultural practices, promote community-based peace frameworks, and improve border management reflect an awareness that no single strategy can address the complexity of the threats it faces.
There is caution and hope at the same time. True progress will be measured not only by the number of terrorists neutralised or barrels of oil recovered, but by the resilience of communities once scarred by violence.
One thing is however clear: Nigeria, long trapped in the vice of insecurity, is no longer retreating. It is, cautiously but deliberately, reclaiming lost ground.
– Dahiru Bashir Hassan is a security researcher and writes from the FCT