President Bola Tinubu finished ahead of Peter Obi by 1,067 responses in the Oxford–Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll, Vanguard reports. The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded a total of 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.
Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi polled 23,402, representing 33.86 per cent. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent. The result gave Tinubu an advantage of approximately 1.54 percentage points over Obi.
The poll’s regional distribution suggested a significantly different electoral map from the 2023 presidential election. Tinubu, who won 12 states in 2023, led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Obi and Atiku recorded the highest number of responses in eight states each. Tinubu led in Kaduna, Katsina, and Gombe states won by Atiku in 2023—and also in Kano, where NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso won.
At the regional level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West, and North-Central zones, while Obi dominated the South-East and South-South. Atiku led the North-East. In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278. Despite Tinubu’s wider geographical spread, the national contest remained remarkably close.