Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased slightly to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s official statistics agency.
The decline was small, but it came after earlier expectations from some analysts that Nigeria’s inflation could rise toward 19% in January 2026. Inflation is closely tracked because it reflects changes in the cost of living and can shape decisions by households, businesses, and policymakers.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index, a broad measure of price movement for goods and services consumed by households, fell to 127.4 in January 2026 from 131.2 in December 2025. That represents a 3.8-point drop, suggesting that average prices declined during the month.
The bureau said the January 2026 headline inflation rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, it reported headline inflation of 15.10% in January 2026, which it said was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation was negative 2.88% in January, compared with 0.54% in December, indicating that average prices declined in January after rising slightly the previous month.
Beyond the headline figure, the bureau’s data showed continued differences between urban and rural areas. Urban inflation, which tracks price changes in cities and towns, stood at 15.36% year-on-year in January 2026, down from 29.45% in January 2025. Month-on-month, urban inflation declined by 2.72% in January, compared with 0.99% in December. The 12-month average for urban inflation was 22.30%.
Rural inflation was 14.44% year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.04% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, rural inflation fell by 3.29% in January, compared with negative 0.55% in December. The 12-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03%.
Food inflation recorded one of the most significant changes in the report. The National Bureau of Statistics said food inflation was 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, which was 20.73 percentage points lower than the 29.63% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, food inflation declined by 6.02% in January, compared with negative 0.36% in December.
The bureau linked the food inflation decline to reduced prices for items including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef and cassava. It also said the average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending January 2026 was 20.29%, down from 38.47% recorded in January 2025.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices to reflect underlying inflation trends, was 17.72% year-on-year in January 2026, compared with 25.27% in January 2025. Month-on-month, core inflation declined by 1.69% in January, compared with 0.58% in December. The 12-month average core inflation rate was 22.84%, lower than the 27.24% recorded in January 2025.
At the state level, Benue State in central Nigeria recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48%, followed by Kogi State in central Nigeria at 20.98%, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria’s capital territory, at 19.25%.
The lowest year-on-year headline inflation rates were recorded in Ebonyi State in southeastern Nigeria at 8.72%, Katsina State in northwestern Nigeria at 8.94%, and Imo State in southeastern Nigeria at 10.61%.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo State and Ondo State in southwestern Nigeria recorded the highest increases at 1.93% and 1.932% respectively. Cross River State in southern Nigeria’s coastal region, Ogun State in southwestern Nigeria, and Kogi State recorded the sharpest declines at negative 6.34%, negative 6.30% and negative 6.03% respectively.
For food inflation, Kogi State recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84%, followed by Benue State at 18.38% and Adamawa State in northeastern Nigeria at 17.29%, while the bureau said Ebonyi State, Abia State in southeastern Nigeria, and Imo State recorded the slowest rise in food prices.